Okay, you saw what happened this past weekend at the Class Championships, right?
Now forget all that.
Well…sort of.
Following the theme of the current World Series, it’s a whole new ballgame now.
Go ahead, do the math. Compile all the results together from the three class meets and come out with your predictions on what will happen this Saturday when our athletes and teams converge one more time at Ponaganset for the RILL State X-C Championships. From that, you might get a vague picture at what will happen this weekend. A completely accurate one? Not a chance. No one will. Not even you’re so-called experts here at Ocean State Running. As we always do, here’s our best shot at predicting what we think will occur this weekend on what looks to be perfect conditions for racing.
Once again, you’re welcome in advance for any billboard material we have provided for your respective schools. It’s certainly not intentional. It just happens to go with the territory.
We begin preview week by highlighting the top boys’ teams.
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There should be no surprises here what team will come out on top this Saturday. Bishop Hendricken has looked strong all season long and showed there dominance at the Class A meet where the Hawks scored a low 31 points to take home the hardware by a comfortable 34 points over La Salle Academy. Without three of its varsity runners, Cumberland was third with 80 points and North Kingstown wasn’t too far behind with 88. Can anyone of those squads, or even East Greenwich and Barrington, 1-2 finishers in Class B, catch the Hawks.
We don’t think so.
Here’s a few big reasons why. Let’s say the Hawks have a few of their top runners unable to run due to sickness or injury. How can they still come out on top? Well, it’s simple. Hendricken kind of has a good backup plan. The Hawks have plenty of quality runners to replenish the ones that aren’t there and make things run just as smooth. In the JV race, they had the top three finishers, including freshman Shepherd Butler, who won the race in 16:55.47. What’s always been their strength, the Hawks are also a close-knit bunch where there’s often very little real estate between their five scoring runners. At the class meet, there was a minute gap between lead runner and second-place finisher Colby Flynn (15:45.99) and No. 5 guy, Brayden Seraichyk (ninth, 16:46.15). After Flynn, the gap was only 37 seconds between it’s No. 2, BJ Kerachsky (fifth, 16:12.18), and No. 6, freshman Oliver Redmond (12th, 16:49.81). That’s tough to beat.
But, as we all know, anything can happen at the Big Show. We’ve seen it before. It can happen again. Sometimes runners can underperform, get hurt on the course, or come down with sudden sickness when it’s too late to fill the void.
Who are some of those teams that have an outside chance at pulling off the upset? To win against the Hawks, it’s almost imperative that the top five are under 17 minutes, or at least close to it. Teams that have a chance at doing that are East Greenwich and Cumberland. The Avengers had four go sub-17 at the class meet with Luke Allen, David Hayes, Brody Fahys and Andrew Parisi clocking times ranging from 16:14.76 to 16:54.80. EG’s next two, James Maraccio (17:26.03), Joshua Valentine (17:29.27) were separated by a little more than three seconds. With both working together again this weekend, could we see some faster efforts, times closer to 17 minutes or at least low 17 minutes? That could make a difference. As we mentioned earlier, Cumberland was without three of their varsity runners – Shawn Murray, Noah Brown and Ethan Libby. Murray ran 17:05.0 at the Wickham Park Invitational, a course that’s certainly more challenging than Ponaganset. Brown had a PR of 17:24 and Libby ran a best of 17:29 there. The Clippers’ top four on Saturday were Sam Henderson (third, 15:58.42), Jake Schonhoff (tenth, 16:47.98), Cole Walker (14th, 16:54.80) and Will Souza (19th, 17:11.73). In a perfect world, if all are healthy and at their best, the Avengers and Clippers could pose somewhat of a threat to the Hawks. We do predict a team win for Hendricken. But maybe, just maybe it might not be the Hawks hoisting the trophy at the end. Again, as we said, anything can happen.
In no particular order, look for La Salle, North Kingstown and Barrington to also secure top six placements and tickets to the New England Championships the following weekend at Wickham Park.
