Okay, you saw what happened this past weekend at the Class Championships, right?
Now forget all that.
Well…sort of.
Following the theme of the current World Series, it’s a whole new ballgame now.
Go ahead, do the math. Compile all the results together from the three class meets and come out with your predictions on what will happen this Saturday when our athletes and teams converge one more time at Ponaganset for the RILL State X-C Championships. From that, you might get a vague picture at what will happen this weekend. A completely accurate one? Not a chance. No one will. Not even you’re “so-called experts” here at Ocean State Running. As we always do, here’s our best shot at predicting what we think will occur this weekend on what looks to be perfect conditions for racing.
Once again, you’re welcome in advance for any billboard material we have provided for your respective schools. It’s certainly not intentional. It just happens to go with the territory.
Here we feature the top boys for Saturday’s race.
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The hoopla began more than a month ago concerning what most believe will be an epic battle between two runners that have been our best this season since Day 1. Now it’s here, mano a mano – La Salle’s Marshall Vernon vs. Portsmouth’s Sean Gray. We’ve talked to them both this season on multiple occasions. Both want that individual title bad, really bad. Both also will not be holding back at this weekend’s race. We can assure you of that. The class championships were different. It was all about the win, and nothing else. In some sense, the time on the clock meant nothing.
Not this time.
When that gun is fired for the start of the boys’ race, these guys will be all business. Don’t be surprised to see a time in the low 4:40 range at the mile mark with the duo within strides of each other, maybe side by side. When Vernon and Gray exit the woods and round the corner near the tennis courts for the last 600 meters, we’re expecting them to still be together with a possible record-breaking performance on the line. The conditions appear to be perfect for both to take a stab at the course record of 14:56.09 by former La Salle great DJ Principe from 2017. Both have proven it’s possible with some signature races this fall. Gray had two big victories at the Wickham Park Invitational on Sept. 28 and the Maine Festival of Champions on Oct. 5, where he smashed the meet record with a PR of 14:55.6. Vernon raced to impressive triumphs at the Bowdoin X-C Classic last month and the Manhattan College Invitational in New York on Oct. 13, where he blazed the demanding 2.5-mile layout at historic Van Cortlandt Park in 12:24.7.
Here’s the question – Will it just be the Vernon-Gray Show this weekend? While we give these two warriors co-favorite status, you still have to keep your eyes on what’s behind them. First of all, you have to respect the defending champion, Cumberland’s Sam Henderson. The Clipper senior has come on nicely this season after recovering from an injury that derailed his summer training. Henderson ran a solid 16:32.0 to finish seventh at Wickham Park and raced to a season 5K best of 15:58.5 at the Class A meet where he placed third overall. Henderson is a patient runner. He demonstrated that at last year’s states where he held back in the early stages, nestled in seventh at the mile mark before going to work the last half of the race to earn the individual title in a PR of 15:33.3. It’s not too far-fetched to say that Henderson has an outside chance to repeat with another patient approach. We know he can handle the pressure of a race of this impact.
There’s also Narragansett’s Cole Francis, our Class C winner. Francis earned a nearly 50-second victory with his time of 16:09.57, an effort that could have easily been under 16 minutes if not for the strong wind that runners were greeted with at the beginning of the race. Francis admitted he made a mistake at last year’s State Meet where he took the pace out a wee bit too hard and paid for it at the end where he labored to a sixth-place finish. He won’t make the same mistake twice. Look for him to hang behind the lead pack on Saturday and try and do most of his damage late in the race. Will it pay dividends in the end? It could.
Another runner we can’t ignore is Hendricken’s Colby Flynn. He was second at the Class A meet where he ran a best at Ponaganset of 15:46.0. Like Francis and Henderson, we don’t expect the Hawks’ sophomore to try and push the pace; rather, he’ll more than likely lead the chase pack behind Vernon and Gray upfront. We’re sure his top concern is making sure he gets those low points for the Hawks in their quest for another team title.
Other top runners we expect will be vying for those top seven, top-10 positions are Barrington’s Myles Napolitano, East Greenwich’s David Hayes and Luke Allen, Hendricken’s BJ Kerachsky and North Kingstown’s Gavin Shipperly, to name just a few.
