Okay, you saw what happened this past weekend at the Class Championships, right?
Now forget all that.
Well…sort of.
Following the theme of the current World Series, it’s a whole new ballgame now.
Go ahead, do the math. Compile all the results together from the three class meets and come out with your predictions on what will happen this Saturday when our athletes and teams converge one more time at Ponaganset for the RILL State X-C Championships. From that, you might get a vague picture at what will happen this weekend. A completely accurate one? Not a chance. No one will. Not even you’re “so-called experts” here at Ocean State Running. As we always do, here’s our best shot at predicting what we think will occur this weekend on what looks to be perfect conditions for racing.
Once again, you’re welcome in advance for any billboard material we have provided for your respective schools. It’s certainly not intentional. It just happens to go with the territory.
Here we feature the top girls at Saturday’s meet.
***
Here’s a race where we couldn’t stress enough NOT to base your expectations on what happened at the class championships. In our opinion, you’ll be completely off base.
But there is one thing we believe will happen from this past weekend’s meet, the fastest from that competition will also be the fastest on Saturday. Class A winner Keaney Bayha of Pilgrim is our pick to earn a much-deserved state title. One of the hardest workers in the state has been consistent and strong all season long and looked very relaxed in a controlled effort at Ponaganset where she defended her crown with a time of 18 minutes, 23.6 seconds, a best for her on the Chieftains’ covered-bridge trail. We expect Bayha to run this race much like she does each time she steps foot on the line. She’ll dictate the pace early and ensure the race is honest from start to finish. That’s just the way she runs and we don’t expect it to be any different on Saturday.
But as Bayha stated to us after her victory, there are plenty of talented runners in this field. She will have some company in her race that are capable of also pulling out the win.
For starters, there’s the runner-up from Class A, North Kingstown’s Abbie Tighe. The Skipper sophomore finished nearly 30 seconds behind Bayha this past weekend where she clocked a solid 18:51.3. Like Bayha, we don’t believe it was an all-out effort and feel she’s capable of running a lot faster this weekend. In mid October, Tighe had a best of 18:09.2 on a fast 5K at the Bob Glennon Twilight Invitational in Cape Cod. At Ponaganset, that time computes to about an 18:30-18:40 on the more challenging terrain. She can do faster and she will need to if she wants to secure a victory.
You have to figure that Cumberland’s Kiley DeFusco and freshman Cecilia Ludwig, who both did not compete at the class meet, could also challenge with our leaders. DeFusco is the bigger question mark out of this duo, but a runner that is certainly capable if she’s at her best. The Clipper senior, who was the outdoor 3K champion, was fourth in this race last year where she was timed in a PR of 18:35.5, an effort that was more than a minute faster than what she did at the class meet the previous weekend. Don’t be fooled by what she did during the dual-meet season where it looks like she had one all-out effort, a 19:12 effort in mid September. If healthy, she can make things interesting this weekend. She’s proven the last few years, she can perform in races where the stakes are at their highest.
How about Ludwig? In our mind, she’s a legit top-3, top-5 threat. The gifted ninth-grader, a two-time middle school state champion, has had a strong inaugural high school season and has been carefully monitored for a peak performance during championship season. The highlight of her fall campaign so far was a PR of 19:23 at the Wickham Park (CT) Invitational, a performance that placed her fifth overall in the varsity race. After her convincing victory at the frosh states where she won by 40 seconds, Ludwig was held back from competing in the class meet five days later to prep for this weekend’s race. She’s a gritty competitor that we feel will not shy away from battling with our front-runners on Saturday. She’s capable of a sub-19 performance, which is not uncommon for talent like her. Back in 2020, last year’s state titlist and graduating senior Rory Sullivan of St. Raphael Academy was sixth in this race with a time of 18:54.34. A year earlier, East Greenwich’s star alum Rylee Shunney was fifth as a ninth-grader at 18:51.15. Ludwig’s at their caliber.
You have to figure that Portsmouth’s Allie Kaull can also make things happen this weekend. Don’t be fooled by her winning time of 19:24.05 at the Class C race. She not only had to deal with a strong wind at the beginning, but ran solo for most of the race with no one in sight for more than half the distance. The Patriots’ gifted senior has the ability to run a lot faster and has proven she’s not intimidated by the elite competition she’ll be facing this weekend.
We’re going to put La Salle’s Alyssa Parenteau here, too. As we stated in our team preview, she’s a game-day decision. If she’s healthy and on the line, she could be a factor based on past history.
Other runners we feel could be fighting for top spots at the states are North Kingstown’s Lucy Stowe, Cumberland’s Rose Tuomisto and Charli McCue, La Salle’s Maeve Casey, Barrington’s Evelyn Lefort, North Smithfield’s Julia Dowling and St. Ray’s Mackenzie Lickert, just to name a few.
